I think a nice backyard chase is in order

Well at this point in the game I don’t even look at the SPC outlook but I could not ignore this one.

day2probotlk_1730_any

I mean this is totally in my back/front yard depending on which direction I look.

While not overly excited I do like the way things are looking, If everything holds and good evening storms fire off they will be supercellular  for sure with very strong rotation. Strong Wave will move in Thursday evening right through Sioux Falls. Models are showing good forcing in the mid and upper levels and great shear.  Still a bit concerned about CAP but that looks better along and north of I-90.

NAM_221_2010081818_F27_CAPE_SURFACE

NAM_221_2010081818_F27_WSPD_700_MB

NAM_221_2010081818_F27_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND

We will see what tomorrow brings but I do plan to be out.  Target Area? Well, technically I can decide tomorrow since I can pretty much just step out my door and be there.

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